The near future, national audit arrange announces " 36 local government result of this audit of debt of class government sex " show: 18 provincial capital and municipality directly under the Central Government, 17 acceptance come with income of land sell one's own things countervail debt, scale is as high as 95% . The annual interest interest that the net income of land sell one's own things of 600 billion paid a place debt repeatedly 2012 is insufficient.
Chinese economharrison hot spring public poolyharrison hot spring weather forecast weekly" report of Beijing of ︱ of reporter Liu Debing
Although national audit arrange is in what announced on June 10 " 36 local government result of this audit of debt of class government sex " (next weighing " " audit result " " ) in the concise and comprehensive when speaking of land finance, but with audit arrange is right brass faucet2010 the comprehensive audit of countrywide place debt is comparative, newest data made clear a few reality: By 2010, governmental sex debt has 40% to want to rely on land accrual to repay about, and now, this one scale has exceeded partial area half, local government debt repays height relies on land accrual; But meanwhile, amplitude of income of land sell one's own things is in drop, the land income of partial local government cannot satisfy countervail debt requirement more and more, countervail debt pressure is being increased further.
The market analyses a personage to point out, although land finance became local debt help straw, also make house of tall house price tall from this no less than, bubble is defeated hard, but land finance mode is entering low ebb gradually, local debt crisis erupts the risk is added increasingly drama, and once place cannot essential broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure solves debt problem, so the outbreak of debt crisis fears will be an empty talk no longer.
Sampling investigation 95% provincial capital,
modern dining chairsThe municipality directly under the Central Government relies on land countervail debt
" audit result " although not be the panorama of debt of our country place, but this audit investigates draw-out example to be the city of 15 provincial capital that this class and its place belong to 3 15 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government area under administration of 3 this class, city, enclothed the provincial area of countrywide half above and provincial capital city, collect sample more extensive, have representative.
Audit arrange " selective examination " discovery, the debt remaining sum that just is countervail debt origin partly with income of land sell one's own things grows. By 2012, 4 visit town of 17 this class, provincial capital the debt remaining swatch casesum that this class acceptance is countervail debt origin with income of land sell one's own things seven hundred and seventy-four billion six hundred and ninety-seven million yuan, 54.64% what occupy these local government to have countervail to return liability liability remaining sum, grow one hundred anorth face shirtsnd eighteen billion three hundred and ninety-seven million yuan than 2010, occupy than increasing 3.61 percent. Change character, many places come with income of land sell one's own things countervail debt.
Those who be worth vigilance is, 18 provincial capital in audit report and municipality directly under the Central Government, 17 acceptance come with income of land sell one's own things countervail debt, scale is as high as 95% .
The reporter interviews discovery, this year first half of the year, it is under weigh of building city adjusting control, local government still lifted climax selling the land one round, each district " ground king " frequenthe best spring poolcy goes out, occupy personage of know the inside story to divulge, the reason depends on pressure of debt of countervail of partial local government increasing, and must sell the land more. From the point of macroscopical face, the last few years, income of land sell one's own things occupied the 1/4~1/3 of countrywide finance income; And to city of very much line character, income of its land sell one's own things can take local financial in part.
Excessive depend on land finance to make tall house price is defeated harder
The land finance that this grows in intensity more than 10 years namely recently. What the wine is the United States of person, someone says is bane, anyhow, land finance has rolled bigger more like snowball, rolled 3 trillion yuan of class nowadays from one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two yuan of class several years ago.
According to ministry of land natural resources public data shows, countrywide sell one's own things is state-owned 2012 construction accumulates three hundred and twenty-two thousand eight hundred hectare with the ground, money paid for something purchased or received for something sold of contract of sell one's own things (namely gross income of land sell one's own things) 2.69 trillion yuan, decrease respectively compared to the same period 3.3% with 14.7% . Among them, invite public bidding, auction, hang out one's shingle floor of ground of sell one's own things accumulates 293 thousand hectare, 90.8% what occupy gross area of sell one's own things; 94.8% what take money of total prices of contract of sell one's own things.
Severe leap forward of researcher of academy of estate of Shanghai easy house to " Chinese economy weekly " express, local government counts land finance, it is channel of repay a debt too narrow, the place with diseased mechanism of income of finance of not smooth to progress of partial industry economy, place, land natural resources becomes a final to help straw; 2 it is at present land income is obtained more easily, because local government is the exclusive feeder of local land, because this is in,get field of gold of land sell one's own things to be not tickler; 3 it is current to local debt run still crudely, local government drills the hole of the system easily, can come true to serve as with land income thereby repay the purpose that assure.
modern dining chairsCao Jianhai of researcher of institute of economy of industry of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to " Chinese economy weekly " express, the debt of one most should rely on land finance to repay, show state of local government finance had been kidnapped by land finance adequately, and this brought a series of adverse effects to Chinese economy apparently. The most typical is bubble of current house price blow bigger more, but local government defeats foamy to be determined without thorn, result house price moves higher more.
In recent years, city of adjusting control building moves frequently in the center of, restrained the tendency that house price rises for a time even 2008, but by 2008, many local government published a series of policy that help city quickly, analytic personage points out, because,be land finance cause trouble.
Severe leap forward points out, too count land finance, undoubted meeting brings a series of harms. The first, land finance caused the laziness of local government and corruption. Be in need not when big cost, too count land income, and the breakthrough won't be sought in other income respect. The 2nd, local government can force him the condition that be in a dilemma. Support land finance can increase the income of local government admittedly, but controlling house price and the case that make the king that control the land to fall at present, "Flour is expensive at biscuit " the difficulty that can raise charrison hot spring dealontrol room price again. The 3rd, land finance creates the risk that give, final meeting marry again go up personally to ordinary common people. Arrive from local government development business, arrive again ordinary common people, the interest that actually annulus annulus photograph is buckled concerns. Below this kind of mode, final meeting became fat government, cheap develop business, sufferred from common people however.
Land finance has an end eventually
Nevertheless, system of tax getting money and repay the element influence such as local debt, from future quite long period of time looks, land finance still hard keep within limits, many local government still can insist to eat land meal. The reporter interviews discovery, no matter be,wait for city of a gleam of from Beijing, Shanghai, still be 34 lines city, all can discover local government still keeps laying in land. In recent years, henan makes the same score week of music of graveyard incident, Heibei to shovel corn field incident to wait, all local government closes store the shadow of land. And, compare at going a few years, villages and towns of instantly China's smallest administrative unit —— one class local government, deeper and deeper also to the intervening degree of land.
A personage inside course of study points out even, did not come 5 years at least, land finance is exited hard.
But on the other hand, the land finance contribution to local debt ability, however may not more and more give power.
" audit result " show, because amplitude of income of land sell one's own things dropped 2012, pressure of local countervail debt increases: By 2012, 4 visit town of 17 this class, provincial capital income of this level land sell one's own things reduces thirteen billion five hundred and eight million yuan than 2010, reduce 2.83% , after deducting cost sex defray and each income that provide extraction by the country can control income of land sell one's own things to reduce seventeen billion nine hundred and fifty-six million yuan, reduce 8.82% . The debt that these areas were countervail debt origin with income of land sell one's own things 2012 needs countervail repayment of capital to cease two hundred and thirty-one billion five hundred and seventy-three million yuan, to can control 1.25 times of income of land sell one's own things in those days.
Data explains, afore-mentioned local government can control income of land sell one's own things to still can't repay 2012 its correspondence debt, namely " into not apply goes out " .
From the point watch case openerof cothe most popular selling norton internet antivirusuntrywide level, if according to former minister Xiang Huaicheng was in the Ministry of finance this year in April on forum of Bo Ao Asia forecast, current, dimensions of total debt of countrywide various government predicts to exceed 20 trillion yuan. Combine the channel of local debt financing that national audit arrange announces, although press interest rate,bank loan is calculated, national place debt only one year interest expenses is as high as 1.2 trillion yuan (by a year period 6%) of loan interest rate.
According to the Ministry of finance newest those who announce " circumstance of income and expenses of sell one's own things of land of entire 2012 territory " data is calculated, use accrual of land sell one's own things actually 2012 to be close to 600 billion yuan. The annual interest interest that link the best selling north face shirtsof net income of land sell one's own things pays a place debt is insufficient.
"In fact, a lot of places are not pure was collapsed by local debt, the accrual of only place debt collapsed a few local government. " the personage inside afore-mentioned course of study discloses, in recent years local government greets countervail debt height gradually, in city of line of some just a little, push the ground to cannot have satisfied Wu of countervail repay a debt to need by normal rhythm, and must roll out high grade plot more, the result is king frequency gives the ground. But if cannot from go up at all broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure, and mode selling the land has an end eventually, at the appointed time local debt will greet tremendous crisis.
Severe leap forward expresses, land income will more and more show two outstanding issues: One, income is insufficient. Below so giant local debt dimensions, especially dead horse repays period when arriving in succession, current land income cannot satisfy the appetite that repay far. 2, the income mechanism of land sell one's own things does not grow effect. Land natural resources is limited after all, at the same time town planning process also does not allow to develop of all kinds land incontinently, such land income have eventually dried up when.
At the appointed time, a few cities will erupt likely debt crisis.
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