■ pay close attention to " Qian Huang "
"Close Mom " did not change " stepmother " , just see child trip was not helped up, hope he himself climbs just.
The hottest topic nothing is more... than on the closest media " Qian Huang " , suddenly the money issues overmuch likelihood to brought about inflation to become capital to be in short supply to be brought about possibly shrink, and crisis of probable meeting occurrence banking. First time of a lot of readers knew a word " interest rate of the short-term loan between Shanghai bank (Shibor) " , the accrual that money lends each other between this Bank of China is representing the state of supply and demand of market of whole country capital. Interest rate of the short-term loan between this bank is abrupt on develop unconventional high point, stunned whole world, media exclamations the Central Bank " close Mom " change " stepmother " . Appeared then a lot of kinds of explanations.
One kind is " bank of starved to death shadow " theory
Namely Chinese Central Bank is made actively " can accuse financial crisis " , try to eliminate " shadow bank " .
Analyse carefully nevertheless, this kind of view has a problem very much. An enterprise encounters capital difficulty, it is the professional work that should stop not very to make money above all, and reservation makes money much professional work. The commercial bank also is an enterprise, also want angle profit, they if capital is in short supply, made response also is same. Hypostatic now economy is stagnant, the business of hypostatic economy loan with cwatch casesut smaller gain may become a bank " break end to seek to live on " first selection. Accordingly, if the Central Bank attempts to do " hungry therapeutics " if, probable shadow bank is done not have " starved to death " , hypostatic economy first " starved to death " . This kind of view is clear unreasonable.
Coerce besides through constrictive money commercial bank give in, also do not rely on chart. Administrative layer can pass administrative measure completely to clear the business outside the watch, not was necessary to adopt this to plant " fight the enemy 100 from caustic 1000 " practice.
The 2nd kind is to heat up Qian Liu to go out theory
Because the best spring poolhot money is poured out of in great quantities,this kind of view thinks unexpected violent wind raises interest rate is, cause monetary in short supply. Pour out of from hot last year money theory more popular, just arrived the evidence that the end of the year hethe most popular selling norton internet antivirusated up Qian Liu to enter China last year is very clear, turn to say to flow into. Arrived this year in May, as beautiful couplet store the trend that stops to add hair dollar is clearer and clearer, the rising market fund such as Indian Brazil is poured out of apparent, domestic hot money is poured out of theory be current rises. Weird nevertheless is, RMB index is rising after June 17 unexpectedly, this specification has foreign currency your writing to flow into at that time. Because this heats up money this kind,pour out of theory follow market condition correspondence not to go up it seems that.
The 3rd kind is to make cthe most popular norton internet antivirusan accuse financial crisis to promote reform talkingnorton internet antivirus
This kind of argument thinks China makes of purpose " can accuse " the bank that financial crisis will come to to eliminate difference and enterprise, force the industry upgrades, in order to promote economic reform.
This kind of view has a place too one's own wishful thinking, have on the world " can you accuse " financial crisis? How can you make sure good bank and enterprise do not suffer be a burden on? Even if medium or small the bank closes down, also can cause tremendous chain reaction, be a burden on is very much hypostatic economy business and financial orgnaization. Upgrade as to the industry, now have been the 5th year of world economy crisis, the industry is in all the time shuffle upgrade, return find sth useful to force so? The way that besides economy reforms basically is to commercialize, a lot of people consider as should enhance civilian look forward to, but if come field banking crisis, still be civilian look forward to dies quickly. Because of this kind of view also very do not rely on chart.
The 4th kind is puncturbrass faucete estate bubble is talked
According to this kind of view, the government is be enlightened tightens up money too, get out of the way sends business to be short of blood, force its undersell house property, make house price drops. Nevertheless the government is hit controlling estate also is not, the money that the bank lends development business now is very few, basically be shadow bank and foreign capital borrow money to give them. Besides now main task of the government is steady growth, hope estate market bubble disappears slowly, this kind of method that helping whole economy follow estate market perish together shoulds not to often manage apparently.
Remain still the government hits commerce to cover fault of time limit of benefit, bank to deserve to wait for a view. The government hits commerce to cover the issue that benefit is 45 month, at that time although appear capital outflow, but Shibor did not suffer how old influence, still maintain 4% the following. Fault of bank time limit deserves to talk think, government of some banks fluidity gives an issue, zealous deadline watch case manufacturercovers brass faucet aerator interest, caused short-term borrowed money, in devoted and long-term capital fund, appear serious deadline fault matchs, be thrown in long-term capital fund, and because of monetafree modern dining chairsry multiplier effect, long-term capital fund is deposited without enough and corresponding money again in each big bank, because this caused capital unusual shortage. This kind of view is reasonable, but did not explain why the Central Bank not only should give each big bank " ablactation " , send the capital of center ticket steam again of 2 billion to come everyday even " exsanguinate " .
At present about a daily interest rewatch case openerate on private loans or deposits between the bank unusual unplug tall explanation, major argument is based on premise of such a hypothesis: The government supports the Central Bank to want intentionally to make a commercial bank. But be like these viewpoints to basically cannot justify oneself. So we change a train of thought, on June 20 " incident " can be normal market phenomenon only, be the Central Bank did not intervene nevertheless just? Previousthe best selling north face shirtsly every time when capital is in short supply, the Central Bank appears personally interpose, and do not have a movement this. "Close Mom " did not change " stepmother " , just see child trip was not helped up, hope he himself climbs just.
赟 of □ Zhao Ya (Chinese people university weighs academy of in relief finance to study department chief)
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